Future of Europe
Moscow School of Political Studies
| Tuesday, July 27, 2004
I would like to speak about the three most discussed issue about the future of the European Union today.
The first concerns the European Constitution.
The second concerns foreign and defence policy
The third concerns the future of the Euro
I will conclude briefly about how all this may affect Russia.
The New Constitution
First, the EU has a new Constitution. This was agreed at the Brussels Conference on 18 June of this year. Agreed, but not ratified. A number of countries, including Britain and France, will hold referenda on ratification, probably next year.
Constitutions are associated with creating governments. But the European Constitution is mainly a consolidation of existing treaties into one, 370 page, document. The
US Current Account Deficit and Future of the World Monetary System
'Sixty Years After Bretton Woods: Developing a Vision for the Future' - Reinventing Bretton Woods, Rome Conference 2004
| Thursday, July 22, 2004
This paper seeks to challenge the conventional view that generalised floating is the desirable and inevitable goal of the international monetary system.
It argues that the breakdown of 20th century fixed exchange-rate systems was due more to the privileged position of the United States in the system than to inherent weaknesses arising from domestic political pressures or financial liberalisation. Specifically, the position of the dollar in the world economy has enabled the USA at various moments to print dollars without limit to finance its preferred pattern of spending. This has created unsustainable imbalances whose liquidation requires periodic changes of regime. The problem of adjustment is not solved by generalizedContinue reading...
Ever since the end of the Cold War, people have been trying to picture what a ‘world after communism’would look like. The first attempts to discern the post-communist future revolved round the ideas of ‘globalisation’ and ‘democracy’. Underlying both was the view that the main barrier to the spread of markets and democracy had fallen away, and that a ‘new world order’ was shaping up, or could be made to shape up, according to these two precepts. A crucial corollary of this was that war and the threat of war would become residual factors in the ordering of international relations because we had found a ‘better way’. Free trade promised gains to all; and ‘democracies do not go to war with each other’. Markets and politics would for the
Democracy and Globalisation
Moscow School for Political Studies
| Tuesday, July 29, 2003
1. In Russia there is no tradition of democracy. The rule of the tsars was autocratic.This was followed by seventy years of communism. Democracy, as we understand it, only started with Gorbachev and Yeltsin. Yeltsin was the first freely elected ruler of Russia. This was less than 10 years ago. In no other European country has democracy come so late.
2. Today it seems almost inconceivable that the clock will be turned back all the way. At the same time, there has not been enough time for democracy to strike deep roots. According to opinion surveys produced by Richard Pipes at the seminar last week, 50% of Russians thought multiparty elections were a waste of time. Only 8% said they would actively fight a Bolshevik coup, and 50% said
The main purpose of this paper is to take issue with Bordo's claim that targeting inflation is the efficient 'modern' way to secure stable exchange rates. It argues that the Bretton Woods system of fixed, but adjustable exchange rates, gave the best all-round performance of all the exchange-rate regimes we have had, and that this constitutes a prima facie case for trying to recreate something like it. It further argues that the causes of the collapse of the fixed-exchange rate systems of the last century have been misinterpreted to support the current near consensus in favour of floating. It argues that the advocates of 'autonomous' monetary policy make exaggerated claims on its behalf. The thrust of the paper is that a